This AL MVP battle is EPIC: Latest on all of MLB's award races (2024)

As we enter the last few weeks of the 2024 MLB season and the awards races reach their crucial final stages, one category stands above all others: the epic derby for American League MVP.

You can read the current verdict below, though nothing is decided. Three players have already cracked the seven-win barrier according to the Baseball Reference version of WAR: Aaron Judge (7.7) and Juan Soto (7.1) of the Yankees, and Bobby Witt Jr. (7.2) of the Royals. Baltimore's Gunnar Henderson (6.9) and Boston's Jarren Duran (6.6) aren't far behind. The FanGraphs version of WAR is pretty close on the top three, giving Judge, Soto and Witt more than seven wins as well.

Focusing on the top three, given the games already in the books for their respective teams, the paces of the power trio have them all on target for more than 10 WAR. Judge (11.1) leads the on-pace chart, with Soto and Witt both right around 10.1. Henderson, meanwhile, is on track for 9.8 bWAR and only needs to pick up the pace a little to give us four hitters with double-digit wins.

We can make fun of paces all we want, but we're in the second week of August and the pace of WAR accumulation has been quickening for each of the top three, while Henderson has resumed his dominance after a temporary dip.

Why is this notable? Well, there has never been a season in which three hitters in the same league have topped 10 WAR. In fact, there have been only three seasons in which two hitters in a league have reached that benchmark, according to the Stathead tool at Baseball Reference:

1910 American League: Ty Cobb and Eddie Collins (both 10.5)
1927 American League: Babe Ruth (12.6) and Lou Gehrig (11.9)
2001 National League: Barry Bonds (11.9) and Sammy Sosa (10.3)

Judge's bWAR is already higher than the end-of-season leader for a number of leagues in recent years -- and yet there is still no certainty that he will wind up atop the 2024 AL leaderboard. Call the AL MVP race unique, special, amazing -- all hyperbole works in this case. But we'll go with epic.

Most Valuable Player

American League

Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (162.8 AXE)

Next nine: 2. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (157.8); 3. Juan Soto, Yankees (157.6); 4. Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles (148.3); 5. Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox (144.4); 6. Rafael Devers, Red Sox (131.9); 7. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians (131.8); 8. Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (129.3); 9. Steven Kwan, Guardians (127.6); 10. Brent Rooker, Oakland Athletics (126.7)

Leader trend: Judge and Soto have traded the overall MLB lead since late June, while Witt has never quite claimed No. 1. He came within a whisker of doing so after the games of Aug. 1, but Judge has since created a little bit of a buffer. The top three have added significantly to their AXE figures since the last Awards Watch, while Henderson has fallen off just a bit. Since the last edition (June 24), Judge has hit .374/.529/.739 with 13 homers and 33 RBIs in 33 games. FanGraphs has Judge on pace for 59 homers and 148 RBIs. That's pretty good.

Biggest mover: Witt easily claims this spot with a gain of 19.9 AXE points since the last edition. While Judge might fairly be called the American League's most dominant player, Witt might well be the most exciting. Since the last Awards Watch, a stretch that included a post-All-Star run during which Witt appeared to have broken baseball, he has hit .416/.456/.711 with 162-game paces of 36 homers, 18 steals, 122 RBIs and 162 runs scored. Yes -- he has averaged a run scored per game during that time.

Keep an eye on: While this spot is normally going to feature an off-the-radar player, it feels like we have to give Soto some run here. What might help his chances in the race is if Aaron Boone were to flip Soto and Judge in the batting order. The only reason I could see it happening is if opposing managers really go all-in on just walking Judge, as Toronto's John Schneider did three times on Aug. 4. Of course, that's harder to do when Soto gets on base, which he does better than anybody, so Boone isn't likely to change a thing. Anyway, since the last edition, Soto has kept pace with Judge and Witt just fine, hitting .323/.451/.677 with 10 homers, 12 doubles, 29 walks and 31 runs in 32 games.

National League

Front-runner: Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (147.7)

Next nine: 2. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks (142.3); 3. Francisco Lindor, New York Mets (135.0); 4. Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds (131.6); 5. Jurickson Profar, San Diego Padres (129.5); 6. Marcell Ozuna, Atlanta Braves (128.1); 7. Matt Chapman, San Francisco Giants (127.9); 8. Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies (126.1); 9. Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (125.5); 10. Mookie Betts, Dodgers (124.6)

Leader trend: The AL race is so good that the NL MVP chase feels like kind of an also-ran. Which is wild because Ohtani is doing historic things of his own, as he usually does. This time, it has nothing do with his Cy Young-caliber pitching but everything do with his all-around offensive skills and the timeliness of his production. Ohtani has been slumping of late, but he still leads the NL in batting average, runs and homers, while ranking second in walks and RBIs, and third in stolen bases. He's on pace to soar past the 40/40 mark (48 homers, 45 steals) and remains in position to make a run at the NL Triple Crown. It's an absurd combination of factors.

Biggest mover: Chapman has climbed from 120th to 20th in overall MLB rank since the last Stock Watch, climbing out of an early offensive hole to become one of the NL's most productive players. At the time of the last Awards Watch, Chapman was hitting .229/.311/.378. Since then he has slashed .274/.377/.570, while flashing the kind of Gold Glove defense at third base that has long been his forte.

Keep an eye on: The oft-overlooked Marte is working very hard to make sure he's overlooked no more. His 157 OPS+ is a career best, and his 11 defensive runs saved have him on pace to obliterate his previous high. Arizona has been one of baseball's hottest teams, and Marte is a big reason for that -- since the beginning of July, he has a 1.077 OPS with 11 homers and 29 RBIs in 27 games.

Cy Young

American League

Front-runner: Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (134.1)

Next nine: 2. Seth Lugo, Royals (129.6); 3. Garrett Crochet, Chicago White Sox (128.2); 4. Cole Ragans, Royals (126.7); 5. George Kirby, Seattle Mariners (125.8); 6. Corbin Burnes, Orioles (123.9); 7. Emmanuel Clase, Guardians (122.6); 8. Tyler Anderson, Los Angeles Angels (120.9); 9. Tanner Houck, Red Sox (120.5); 10. Logan Gilbert, Mariners (119.2)

Leader trend: Crochet has been the AL's most dominant pitcher. Alas, the White Sox are intent on limiting his innings and he hasn't thrown more than four frames in a contest since June. Thus, you can pretty much scratch him from the list and marvel that he still ranks so high in the AXE system. Lugo has mostly held steady but has lost a little ground to Skubal, the current favorite at ESPN BET. Skubal leads the AL in ERA, ERA+ and strikeouts, but you worry that the out-of-the-running Tigers could slice his innings down the stretch, as he's already in range of a career high.

Biggest mover: Kirby has jumped from 84th in MLB AXE to 29th, and his 10.1 leap in AXE points has him in range of the top of the leaderboard. There's some disparity between systems: FanGraphs rates him much higher than Baseball Reference, as its version of WAR loves Kirby's off-the-charts defense-independent numbers. As it should: Kirby has struck out 8.7 batters for every one he has walked, once again leading the league in that category. Kirby should pitch in a lot of big games down the stretch, which certainly could help his cause.

Keep an eye on: Burnes is second in the odds for this award at ESPN BET. He has been excellent, though his strikeout rate continues to fall, as it has annually since his peak back in 2020. Still, Burnes is the No. 1 pitcher on what might be the AL's best team and ranks second in ERA. In a race where no one has emerged as the clear favorite, those factors might be enough.

National League

Front-runner: Hunter Greene, Reds (131.1)

Next nine: 2. Chris Sale, Braves (130.0); 3. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (126.7); 4. Reynaldo Lopez, Braves (123.8); 5. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (123.6); 6. Dylan Cease, Padres (123.5); 7. Ranger Suarez, Phillies (121.8); 8. Logan Webb, Giants (121.6); 9. Michael King, Padres (120.0); 10. Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies (119.9)

Leader trend: There's not a lot of clarity in this Cy Young chase, either. Greene is tied for fourth at ESPN BET, which has Sale as the favorite. Greene's season has been a slow burn, as he has climbed steadily but not dramatically. The Baseball Reference and FanGraphs systems can have hugely different readings on pitchers, and that is the case for Greene, who has 5.2 bWAR but just 3.3 fWAR. AXE splits the difference, but, going forward, a pitcher with more of a consensus -- Sale and Wheeler both fit that bill -- might have an advantage. The Reds also aren't likely to push Greene too hard down the stretch. All in all, this race is very much up for grabs.

Biggest mover: Cease has added 13.5 points of AXE since the last edition, more than any NL pitcher other than the Giants' Blake Snell. Both of those guys, you might have noticed, have recent no-hitters under their belt. Cease is 5-2 with a 1.99 ERA and 58 strikeouts over his past seven starts, not including a one-inning outing snuffed out by a rain delay. He has been a central figure on one of baseball's fastest-rising teams and has that no-hitter as a signature moment. It's a résumé that's looking increasingly impressive.

Keep an eye on: Skenes, of course. How could you not keep your eye on him? The Bucs have started to fade in the wild-card race, and that could influence how many innings Skenes gets over the last few weeks. We'll touch on that a little more in the NL Rookie of the Year section below.

Rookie of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Luis Gil, Yankees (118.8)

Next nine: 2. Wilyer Abreu, Red Sox (114.9); 3. Austin Wells, Yankees (114.0); 4. Hunter Gaddis, Guardians (113.2); 5. Cade Smith, Guardians (112.4); 6. Colton Cowser, Orioles (112.3); 7. Simeon Woods Richardson, Minnesota Twins (110.4); 8. Lawrence Butler, Athletics (108.7); 9. David Hamilton, Red Sox (107.9); 10. Max Schuemann, Athletics (107.3)

Leader trend: The betting markets like Cowser, but there's no telling how this will shake out. Gil has been a dogged leader for more than two months. A three-start slump prior to the All-Star break was concerning, but since then, Gil has been excellent, with a 2.35 ERA and 2.47 FIP over four starts. You worry about his innings going forward, even with the Yankees in prime contention. There was chatter earlier this season about sending him to the bullpen as a way to manage his use. When Clarke Schmidt comes off the IL sometime soon, the Yankees might have the luxury to do just that.

Biggest mover: Wells has come out of nowhere. Of the 1,207 players measured this season by AXE, only 11 have added more than Wells since the last edition. Lately, he has been hitting cleanup behind Soto and Judge, which doesn't seem likely to do any harm to his numbers. So far, it certainly hasn't: Wells is hitting .347/.414/.531 as a cleanup hitter so far.

Keep an eye on: Butler has been one of baseball's hottest hitters since the break, with a .343/.392/.753 slash line over 18 games, 7 homers, 17 RBIs and 18 runs. If he keeps that up, voters will notice.

National League

Front-runner: Paul Skenes, Pirates (123.6)

Next nine: 2. Masyn Winn, St. Louis Cardinals (120.8); 3. Shota Imanaga, Chicago Cubs (119.4); 4. Michael Busch, Cubs (118.0); 5. Tyler Fitzgerald, Giants (116.0); 6. Jackson Merrill, Padres (113.9); 7. Matt Waldron, Padres (113.5); 8. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (112.3); 9. Bryan Hudson, Milwaukee Brewers (111.8); 10. Jacob Young, Washington Nationals (111.0)

Leader trend: At this point, the only thing that seems likely to detour Skenes' Rookie of the Year assault is if Pittsburgh pulls the plug on his season to save wear on his arm. The betting markets currently see Skenes as such a prohibitive favorite that he might win the award anyway, though AXE sees Winn as a strong contender in his own right. The Pirates haven't committed one way or the other, but they certainly aren't going to run Skenes into the ground. Whatever happens, the more Skenes we get, the better off we'll all be.

Biggest mover: That Fitzgerald would be on this leaderboard would have been impossible to foresee last time we did this, and that was only a few weeks ago. Since then, he has hit like Barry Bonds -- a comparison I already made in print this week and I'll do it again if I have to. Since last edition, Fitzgerald has hit .354/.407/.848 with 11 homers in 24 games. That 162-game pace translates to 74 home runs, or one more than Bonds' single-season record.

Keep an eye on: Winn was a fairly ballyhooed prospect, but it feels like he has been overlooked a bit in the national conversation. He's not a huge power guy who will grab your attention with tape-measure homers (yeah, Statcast is the new tape measure, but some old jargon you've just got to cling to). He's a 22-year-old, all-around standout shortstop who hits for average, is quick on the bases and has elite defensive numbers. All of that translates to the advanced measures in play here. The Cardinals are fixed at that position for a long time to come.

Manager of the Year

American League

Front-runner: Stephen Vogt, Guardians (107.5)

Next four: 2. Matt Quatraro, Royals (106.1); 3. Alex Cora, Red Sox (103.7); 4. Rocco Baldelli, Twins (103.5); 5. Brandon Hyde, Orioles (103.1)

Overview: From a narrative standpoint, the Vogt vs. Quatraro argument is great. If the Royals actually finish off this shocking run and get to the playoffs after losing 106 games in 2023, it's going to be hard to look past Q. But Vogt has the Guardians in position to land a No. 1 seed in his first season replacing a legend in Terry Francona. It's a great race.

National League

Front-runner: Dave Martinez, Nationals (108.0)

Next nine: 2. Derek Shelton, Pirates (106.1); 3. Pat Murphy, Brewers (104.9); 4. Rob Thomson, Phillies (104.2); 5. Oliver Marmol, Cardinals (103.9)

Overview: Shelton will win it if the Pirates make a rousing run at a playoff slot, but that's looking increasingly unlikely. Marmol was a much-maligned skipper as recently as a few months ago, when many scratched their heads over the extension he got from the Cardinals. If he gets St. Louis back in the playoffs after 2023's last-place dud, he'll have some support. Murphy is probably the favorite. Why does the system like Martinez so much? The Nats have no doubt exceeded expectations, so that's part of it, but it might also be that forecasts, mine included, were too skeptical about the Nationals before the season.